On the day when the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients fell below 100 (DK) for the first time since March 17, two researchers presented a study showing why Denmark has kept the pandemic under control.

In the week from March 17 to March 25, the number hospitalizations rose from 82 to 350, and since then it has fallen steadily to 98 yesterday, with only 20 in ICUs. The number of deaths from COVID-19 has followed a similar trend and now stands at 574. The government’s lockdown went into effect on March 13, and the trend continued downward after it began to lift restrictions on April 15.

Pareto logic

Lone Simonsen, Professor of Public Health at Roskilde University, and Kim Sneppen, Professor of Biocomplexity at the Niels Bohr Institute, have found an explanation of why the epidemic has subsided (DK) even after the increase in contact between people since the reopening. The conclusion of their study, which is based on international data, is that very few persons account for the large majority of infections, and Denmark has succeeded in limiting the influence of these superspreaders. 

The researchers found that about 10 percent of the population is responsible for 80 percent of the spread of the virus and that the largest number of infections take place at events with many participants such as concerts and sporting events. This is an example of the 80/20 rule, or the Pareto Principle, which holds that 20 percent of a phenomenon often accounts for 80 percent of the effect. Even though Denmark allowed schools to open, for example, it was able to keep the spread at bay by limiting the number of people at gatherings and avoiding potential superspreader events.

Praise from the police

The positive trend has also depended on people’s cooperation in following the government and the Health Authority’s guidelines, and the police, who are responsible for enforcing them, have just reported that they continue to do so. This is a holiday weekend. The Monday after Pentecost, or Whit Sunday, is also a holiday in Denmark, and this one of the long spring weekends when people spend more time outdoors and gather with family and friends. The weather has improved, and many are at the beaches. Restaurants and cafes have reopened recently, and the sun doesn’t set until 9:30 p.m. 

Nevertheless, the police have sent several complimentary tweets (DK) from their extra patrols around the country and report that people are avoiding large gatherings and observing social distancing recommendations: “There are certain places where people do not understand [the ban on large gatherings] and we need to get out the tablet and give a fine, but they are very few cases.” 

Since the spread of the infection is under control and the reopening is progressing steadily, people might forget that some restrictions are still in force. A violation of the ban on gatherings can still cost DKK 1,500 (about $215). The police have designated several spots where people traditionally gather as warning zones that they can close if there are too many people. Restaurants and bars must close by midnight. During the weekend, the police have made spot checks and reminded proprietors to observe the distancing requirements.

Solidarity with citizens of a failed state

From personal observation, I would say that the police are putting an optimistic spin on the situation in order to encourage people to do the right thing. But the very fact that they offer positive, encouraging comments highlights the extreme contrast to the disastrous situation in the United States at the moment in the wake of George Floyd’s death. While Danes have been very dismayed at the Trump administration’s mishandling and aggravation of the pandemic, the country’s current descent into violence and chaos is appalling and scarcely conceivable for people with the good fortune to be living here in Denmark. Local Black Lives Matter activists and others held a demonstration in front of the US Embassy yesterday, and as the police themselves predicted, it was peaceful.