Denmark has seen a steady rise in infections (DK) in the past month, although the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain low. For three months, from the beginning of May to the beginning of August, the number of daily infections was below 100. Since the beginning of September, it has been above 200, rising to 300 this past week. Hospitalizations number 47, 4 in ICUs, and deaths total 631. The reproduction number has fluctuated between 1.0 and 1.5 since mid-July, and it is back at 1.5. Testing has also increased significantly.

The number of deaths per million is now 109. In comparison, the figure is 588 in Italy, 589 in the US, and 616 in the UK. The other Nordic countries: 49 in Norway, 582 in Sweden, and 61 in Finland. 

New restrictions but no return to a general lockdown
Tighter restrictions (DK) went into effect last week. In 18 municipalities, almost all of them in Greater Copenhagen, the limit on gatherings was reduced from 100 to 50 and bars had to close by midnight instead of 2 a.m. The limit on spectators at major sports events was reduced to 500. Face masks have been required on public transportation for two weeks now. 

The number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants has risen above 20 in 39 municipalities, and the mayors of several of them are asking that similar restrictions be implemented there. Many of them have placed limits on visits to nursing homes. But virologist Allan Randrup Thomsen (DK) does not think it is necessary in every case. The absolute number of infections is what matters most, and in some municipalities with a small number of inhabitants, the infections have come from individual incidents.

For example, if an infection is discovered in a school, it may be sufficient to close the school or class temporarily without setting restrictions on the entire community. Future restrictions will probably be implemented locally. One of the next likely measures is requiring face masks in supermarkets and shopping centers. 

Young people can’t stop partying
One of the main reasons for the rise in infections, besides the loosening of earlier restrictions, is that young people are holding parties and frequenting bars and parks without observing social distancing measures. Persons from 20 to 30 account for large portion of new infections. At a press conference on Saturday (DK), Police Chief Thorkild Fogde issued a warning that if young people do not become more careful, the police will need to reinvoke tighter restrictions.

It has already made two parks in the Nørrebro district of Copenhagen off-limits, and a violation of the ban is subject to a fine of DKK 2,500 (about $400). Patrols have broken up so-called “pirate parties” at several locations on the weekends. The further restrictions could be requiring masks at bars, closing bars earlier in the evening, and banning gatherings in other areas. Several universities have suspended social activities involving more than 50 attendees. 

Economy is relatively sound
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) issued a statement on September 11, exactly six months after the government announced lockdown restrictions. She emphasized that the Danish economy has recovered much faster than it did after the financial crisis. The number of unemployed has fallen from a peak of 45,000 to 25,000. Housing prices have risen since March, particularly for vacation homes. Consumer spending has recovered. Certain industries, such as hospitality and travel, have suffered long-lasting damage, but others, such as the DIY segment, have thrived during the epidemic.

As in the rest of the world, the stock market has rebounded from the initial selloff. Exports have not recovered yet because they are dependent on the economies of other countries. The recovery has been owing to the government’s relief package, and it is difficult to predict its long-term effects. Economist Michael Svarer expects the recovery to continue. He does not expect a deep second drop, as a in W-shaped pattern, but rather something resembling Nike’s swoosh logo.